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First Posted: 10/10/2014

Penn State’s new coaching staff has put up some solid results in this situation. The Nittany Lions hope the trend carries over from Vanderbilt.

The situation would be the first game after a bye week. Three times over the last two seasons, James Franklin’s crew has knocked off a big-name opponent after having an extra week to prepare while with the Commodores.

In 2012, it was a 19-15 win over Missouri. Last season, Vandy took down Georgia and Florida after a pair of bye weeks. To be fair, Missouri was still a year away from winning the SEC East in 2012. And in 2013, Georgia was ravaged by injuries and Florida was fielding one of its most depressing teams in recent history.

In other words, there’s a lot in common with the current incarnation of Michigan.

The 135th season of Michigan football has been one of the worst on record at the halfway point. It’s the first time in program history that the Wolverines hit three losses before October and it’s the first time since 1967 that they’ve opened Big Ten play 0-2.

And yet Michigan remains a slight favorite in this one. It’s an exceedingly rare night game in Ann Arbor and Penn State has had some difficulty, uh, blocking anyone.

It sets up for what seems like a low-scoring trudge-fest of a game. But it feels like we could see something truly weird given the circumstances.

Just maybe not four-overtime weird.


PENN STATE (4-1, 1-1)

at MICHIGAN (2-4, 0-2)

7 p.m., Saturday, ESPN2

QUARTERBACK
There are people in comas who have heard about the brouhaha involving Shane Morris and the Michigan coaching staff. Putting that mess aside, it’s still hard to fathom why Morris was starting that game over Devin Gardner to begin with. The fifth-year senior’s biggest issue by far is his propensity for turnovers, but he is still the far superior QB. He ran for 121 yards last year against PSU and could easily pull this one out for Michigan. The bye week likely did Christian Hackenberg a world of good after one of his worst performances last time out. EDGE: PSU
RUNNING BACK
This probably would have gone to Michigan a week ago, but the Wolverines are hurting after the news Monday that leading rusher Derrick Green, a former five-star recruit, would miss the rest of the season because of a broken collarbone. De’Veon Smith will likely take over as the starter with Justice Hayes coming in from time-to-time on third downs as a better option as a receiver. But it will be the same story for both those two and Penn State’s Bill Belton and Zach Zwinak: will either duo have any room to run against tough defensive fronts? EDGE: PSU
RECEIVER
In what was a brutal day for the PSU offense against Northwestern, DaeSean Hamilton somehow managed to finish with six catches for 100 yards. He’s one of just two freshman (true or redshirt) in the country to be averaging 100 receiving yards per game this season. Not too shabby. Still, the Lions wideouts have just one TD catch this year and zero on American soil. Now would be an opportune time to break that skid. Michigan has one of the most talented pass-catchers in the country in TE-turned-WR Devin Funchess, though he has been banged up. EDGE: UM
OFFENSIVE LINE
Many of the problems for both teams start right here. Michigan hasn’t fared much better up front than Penn State as both Wolverines QBs have taken a beating and the holes haven’t always been there in the run game. The Wolverines have even been starting a true freshman at tackle this season, something that’s almost unheard of at this level. If the Lions can develop any kind of consistency here, it would give them at least a puncher’s chance to beat anyone left on the schedule. But that’s a pretty big if at this point. Still a very long way to go. EDGE: UM
DEFENSIVE LINE
It’s the very opposite situation on the other side of the ball, as both defenses are thriving in the trenches. It probably doesn’t hurt the Lions that two of their starters on the D-line happen to be Michigan natives in Anthony Zettel and C.J. Olaniyan. Zettel even came down with an interception of Garnder last year while still a part-timer on the unit. He was outdone by Michigan end Frank Black, who played a huge role in rallying Michigan by scooping up a Zach Zwinak fumble for a touchdown last year. The Lions will have their hands full with him again. EDGE: PSU
LINEBACKER
Interestingly, both teams moved their best linebacker from the outside to the middle during the offseason. And while it has worked out well for Penn State and Mike Hull, it has been a mixed bag for Michigan’s Jake Ryan. Last week against Rutgers, the Scarlet Knights beat the Wolverines badly over the middle in the pass game, finding plenty of space between the hashes with Ryan struggling in coverage. That could be a big factor in this matchup vs. the Lions’ tight ends. But will PSU still be shorthanded at LB? Nyeem Wartman has returned to practice and may play. EDGE: UM
SECONDARY
After a strong start to the season, Michigan’s secondary fell off dramatically against Rutgers last week, blowing an assignment on a deep touchdown and allowing Gary Nova to throw for over 400 yards. The previously stalwart Blake Countess has been struggling at corner and may lose reps to the impressive Jourdan Lewis. UM has one of the top-rated freshmen in the country in CB Jabrill Peppers, but an injury has sidelined him for most of the year. Penn State’s veteran backfield has a chance to win this game outright with some well-timed interceptions. EDGE: PSU
SPECIAL TEAMS
No, it still hasn’t been pretty here for the Lions, but Jesse Della Valle turned in the team’s first truly big play in the return game last time out with a 41-yard runback of a punt. Of course there was also a second blocked field goal against, so there are still issues. Michigan has plenty of those. The Wolverines can’t even get the right number of players on the field here, surrendering a punt return TD to Utah with just 10 men out there. They also trotted out just 10 last week during a punt return of their own. The loss to Rutgers was also sealed by a blocked field goal. EDGE: PSU
PREDICTION
More than anything, Penn State has to be praying for an early mistake by Michigan. A blown coverage. A turnover. Even a quick three-and-out. There’s no telling what might set off a seething fanbase that is still expected to sell out the Big House despite the Wolverines’ woes. The Lions’ best chance at victory is to get that ol’ snowball of scorn rolling right from the first quarter and hope it just crushes the home team. But in the end, Michigan is still dangerous on offense and the Lions still must prove they can get anything at all going on offense. MICHIGAN 17, PENN STATE 16