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WILKES-BARRE — As the dust settles in the days following the first presidential debate, one local political science professor sees the race as Democrat Hillary Clinton’s to lose.
Thomas Baldino, professor of political science at Wilkes University, said Republican Donald Trump could win the Nov. 8 election, but he says Clinton is leading in most states with large electoral votes.
“This election could end up like 2000 where Clinton loses the popular vote, but wins the Electoral College vote,” Baldino said. “And this would be caused by the minor party candidates taking popular – but not electoral – votes from Clinton.”
Longtime Democratic political consultant Ed Mitchell said the race is close.
“The race is close, in that one debate won’t make a difference,” Mitchell said. “I think Hillary will win Pennsylvania, and she has significant leads in other states with large electoral votes. But it’s close. We live in a 50-50 nation, and it’s been that way for 10 or more years.”
Baldino said anything can happen between now and Nov. 8 that causes Democrats and Independents to leave the Clinton camp.
“But something could also happen that drives many traditional Republicans and Independents to flee the Trump camp,” Baldino said. “The key for Clinton is having the Obama coalition of 2008 and 2012 – young voters, people of color, and women, in particular — turn out in great numbers in the critical states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, California and New York. If they do, then she wins those states, and the Electoral College vote.”
Through it all, however, Mitchell said Trump has managed to maintain his popularity among his supporters and those voters looking for something different.
“There’s no doubt he is popular, especially around here,” Mitchell said. “There is a feeling of dissatisfaction and people are willing to try anything and he is anything.”
Trump has been to Luzerne County, drawing some 11,000 people to the Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza back in April. Clinton has not visited Luzerne County so far during this campaign, concentrating her efforts in Lackawanna County where she has strong family roots.
“I’m sure she feels she has a much better chance in Lackawanna County,” Mitchell said. “She has raised a lot of money up there. I think she will visit Luzerne County before the election.”
A recent story that appeared on MSNBC noted that Pennsylvania is a crucial swing state and Luzerne County — still a heavy Democratic county — is key to winning the state’s 20 electoral votes.
Baldino said Trump’s supporters either hate Clinton or are so enamored with Trump that no matter what he does and says or what she says or does, his followers will not change their minds about him.
“I wouldn’t say that his numbers always go up regardless of what he says, however,” Baldino said. “I think that changes in the polls reflect stalwart Democrats and Republicans are finally falling in line behind their parties’ nominees. So what we are seeing is that Trump’s numbers increased slowly as Republicans, who once doubted Trump, are returning to the party. The real question is what will true Independent voters do.”
Views on the debate
U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, D-Scranton, said Monday’s debate was a clear contrast between Clinton and Trump.
“Hillary Clinton is a candidate with the experience and policy proposals to raise incomes for American families and keep our nation safe,” Casey said. “Donald Trump is a candidate whose economic policies would cause a recession and whose national security strategies would make our nation less safe.”
Casey said Trump “has repeatedly failed the commander-in-chief test” and the debate showed that. Casey said Clinton will win Pennsylvania and the presidency because she’s set forth a series of proposals to create good-paying jobs.
U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta, R-Hazleton, said the debate showcased Trump’s “clear vision for America,” while Clinton proved that she “is completely disqualified” from serving as our next commander-in-chief.
“Americans are seeking a new direction after eight years of President Obama’s failures, but all we heard from her was more of the same stale pandering and falsehoods we’ve heard for decades,” Barletta said. “A Donald Trump presidency will create millions of family-sustaining jobs for all communities, stand up to the threats of radical Islamic terrorism, and reclaim the American Dream for all Americans.”
Barletta said he didn’t think the debate was “a game-changer” for either candidate. He said Clinton appeared to be reciting memorized talking points from a polished script.
“She offered a vision of the status quo,” Barletta said. “The problem with that is 75 percent of the American people want a change — they want to go in a different direction.”
Barletta also said moderator Lester Holt engaged Trump in debate on several issues, while not going after Clinton on controversial issues like the FBI investigation, Benghazi or the Clinton Foundation pay-for-play scandal.
U.S. Rep. Matt Cartwright, D-Moosic, said he tends to root for people who work hard.
“Because of thorough preparation, Secretary Clinton had solid answers and explanations supported by correct facts,” Cartwright said. “To me, it looked like she was ready for Mr. Trump and was not knocked off her stride by his hectoring the way others have been. I think hard work won her this debate.”
Baldino said he thought Trump behaved as a serious candidate, spoke clearly and answered the questions more directly during the first 20 minutes or so of the debate.
“He appeared relaxed and thoughtful, and appeared to be playing offense rather than defense,” Baldino said. “Clinton, during the same 20 minutes, was playing defense. While poised and articulate, she was parrying questions and challenges from Trump and the moderator.”
Baldino said things changed during the last 60 to 80 minutes, and the roles were reversed with Clinton appearing to be on the offensive and Trump on the defensive. He said Trump was not focused — except on repeating his few core themes, failed to answer directly a number of questions, and repeatedly talked over or interrupted Clinton during her time to answer or comment.
“Overall, I’d score the debate a win for Clinton in terms of style and substance,” he said.
Mitchell said he thought, overall, that it was one of the more interesting presidential debates in history.
“I thought Hillary was really on her game,” he said. “She made a strong finish and got under Trump’s skin.”
