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We had a good lesson in line shopping and quick action this past week with the Memphis Tigers.
If you read last week, you would have seen that I gave out Memphis -4.5 against West Virginia in the Frisco Bowl, which was played Tuesday night.
When I wrote this, 4.5 was the number. By the time the game rolled around, it had briefly jumped all the way up to Memphis -6, before finally closing at Memphis -5. The Tigers went on to win … by five points.
So, if you opened your paper last Friday and immediately got on your sportsbook app to lock in your bet at -4.5, congratulations. You’re a winner.
If you waited until the last second and got -5, that’s a push, not the worst thing in the world. If you got it at -6, that’s tough.
With so many different books operating nowadays (and pretty much all of them legal here in Pennsylvania), it’s always helpful to look around and see where the best lines are for your dollar. It could be the difference between a winner and a loser.
I whiffed really bad on the Bears in primetime, but hit on the Chiefs, Navy and Memphis. Still a good week, and now we look ahead.
College Football Playoff
Clemson +12 vs. Texas
Saturday, 4 p.m., TNT
It’s finally time for the College Football Playoff. The first of the opening round games kicks off on Friday, and then we’ve got three more on Saturday, including this one.
Clemson’s no stranger to the CFP, but the Tigers are not used to being double-digit underdogs in the field. But that’s where they are as the No. 12 seed heading to Texas.
I think the defenses will lead the way in this one, and I think Clemson will surprise some folks with how well they handle Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns offense.
Ewers didn’t look all that impressive in the SEC title game, throwing two picks and struggling to get the ball moving.
So much of the conversation around the Playoff this year is the schedule disparity between teams and leagues — all that belly-aching you heard about SEC teams like Alabama and Ole Miss being more deserving than teams out of the ACC.
Texas quietly avoided some of the biggest names in the SEC this season, not having to play Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee or South Carolina.
The Longhorns might not be up to snuff. Clemson’s been here a ton and even if this isn’t the dominant Tigers of a few years ago, I can’t see them letting this one slip into the double-digits.
Myrtle Beach Bowl
UTSA -10 vs. Coastal Carolina
Monday, 11 a.m., ESPN
This is predominantly a portal play, fading the team that’s going to be missing a ton of pieces for the Myrtle Beach Bowl.
For the non-CFP bowls, probably the number one determining factor for betting or pick ’em purposes is to see who’s in and who’s out.
Coastal Carolina’s starting quarterback and backup quarterback are both gone, and it appears that freshman Tad Hudson will draw the start. He’s taken exactly zero career snaps.
The Chanticleers are also down their top cornerback and a ton of starters on both sides of the ball.
By comparison, UTSA is largely unaffected by transfers, and will have a huge edge with QB Owen McCown. The Roadrunners are the better team even with all things equal, and now they’ll have edges basically everywhere.
NFL
Lions -6.5 at Bears
Sunday, 1 p.m.
I thought the Bears were really going to lock in and hold their own against the Vikings on Monday night. Whoops!
They looked checked out, and it makes sense because this season’s over for the Bears. The optimism in the air at the start of the year has completely dissipated.
The Lions are coming off a loss, and they’re banged up beyond belief. The injuries will be a factor down the line but I don’t think they’re going to matter here.
If Dan Campbell is half the motivator that we’ve known him to be since becoming the top guy in Detroit, that team will be out for blood against a division rival. A win keeps the Lions ahead of Minnesota in the NFC North and in pole position for the top seed in the NFC.
Cardinals -4.5 at Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m.
The Panthers were favored last week for the first time in what felt like decades and promptly fell flat on their face.
I think there’s been a little bit of promise there, namely with Bryce Young playing his way back into a comfortable hold on the starting job. But these two teams aren’t in the same ballpark, and this line doesn’t reflect that well enough.
The Cardinals could be very inconsistent but when they’re at their best, they could be a sneaky playoff team. They’re just a game back in the NFC West, and they have an easier matchup this week than the Rams (at the Jets) and Seahawks (home against the Vikings).
I think Kyler Murray will be able do what he wants on offense, it’ll be on the Arizona defense to get in Young’s face and to bottle up the run game.
If they do that, this won’t be a close game. And I’m betting they’ll be just fine.