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It might not quite be time for a new football season yet, but it is a new year and in light of that, I decided to go back and tally up my record from the start of the season right up through the end of 2024.
I lost track somewhere along the way, but I’ll be sure to keep the weekly records in the columns just so you all could see how great or poorly I’m doing.
This season? Great probably wouldn’t be the word, but I was a lot closer to that than I was to “poor”: 43-29 overall, 23-15 in college football and 20-14 in the NFL.
It was a fairly conservative year for picks, but I did hit two moneyline underdogs: Georgia in the SEC championship game and the Steelers over the Jets back in October. I know that sounds a little off, but back in Week 7 the Steelers were handing over the keys to Russell Wilson for the first time and the Jets were still fooling some people into thinking they had some juice.
I ended 2024 roughly last week, whiffing on both my college picks and only avoiding an 0-4 week on the strength of the Lions beating the Niners.
Let’s start 2025 on the right track.
BAHAMAS BOWL
Buffalo -3 vs. Liberty
11 a.m. Saturday, ESPN2
It’s the very last non-playoff bowl of the year, and I’m riding the hot hand of the Buffs as they head to the Bahamas to take on Liberty.
Liberty has some very early buzz as the possible Group of Five CFP team, but the Flames went 8-3 with losses to Kennesaw State, Jacksonville State and Sam Houston State (three of my favorite states). An unbelievably soft schedule still couldn’t get Liberty to the playoffs, and it’s going to be missing a ton of talent in this one.
Quarterback Kaidon Salter leads a pack of Liberty starters that hit the portal and won’t be in Nassau on Saturday.
By comparison, Buffalo remains intact heading into this game and had a pretty good year (8-4), looking more impressive in a tougher league than Liberty did in its conference.
The Flames haven’t been an underdog one single time this year before Saturday, and went 3-8 ATS against, again, a pretty soft schedule. I don’t think they’re going to hang around in this one.
FCS CHAMPIONSHIP
North Dakota State +3.5
vs. Montana State
7 p.m. Monday, ESPN
In my very first column of the season, I had Colorado as, I think, 9.5-point favorites over North Dakota State. My rationale was that this Bison team was a step down from the dynasty squads that won eight national titles in 10 seasons.
I was wrong on that pick, and looks like I was wrong on this team. North Dakota State is back in the FCS national title game. And I won’t be caught betting against this team again.
Montana State is 15-0 and looking for its first national title in school history. The Bobcats also would like a measure of revenge after the Bison knocked them out of last year’s playoffs.
I think the Bison, besides the fact that they have a ton more experience on this stage, played a much tougher schedule to get here. They’re 5-1 over teams currently ranked in the FCS Top 25, including two wins over the two-time defending champs, South Dakota State.
This should be a very fun game, and the only show in town on Monday night. Maybe the Bobcats win on a field goal, but I’m still good at 3.5 points so I’ll ride with the Bison.
NFL
Falcons -8 vs. Panthers
1 p.m. Sunday
Week 18 is always a bit of a nightmare when it comes to betting, simply because you’ve got to remember which teams are resting starters, which teams are trying to sneak into the playoffs and which teams are chasing a better draft spot.
Here we’ve got the Falcons, who need a win and a Bucs loss to sneak into the playoffs, against a Panthers team that’s not going anywhere but feel like they’ve got a new lease on things with Bryce Young.
I don’t think Atlanta is going to get the help it needs, but this is still one final look at Michael Penix Jr. before the offseason. It’s been a little bumpy for the rookie QB since taking over in Atlanta, but I think he’s definitely got the offense looking better than it had all year.
Carolina’s defense just got torched by Tampa Bay, and I don’t think it will fare all that better against the Falcons, especially with the bruising run game of Bijan Robinson.
As long as the Falcons defense gets some stops, I think they’ll cruise here.
Vikings +3 vs. Lions
8:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC
The final game of the regular season, and it’s a doozy. Winner secures the NFC North and the top seed in the playoffs, while the loser will have to travel to either Tampa Bay or Atlanta.
These teams met in October, with the Lions handing Minnesota its first loss of the year. The Vikings lost to the Rams on a short week and have since won nine in a row.
I think, with the injuries that Detroit has since been hit with, the time is right for the Vikings to get that win back and put the bow on top of a regular season that still seems impossible.
Minnesota has the edge on defense with all of the Lions’ missing pieces, and I think Sam Darnold uses everyone at his disposal so effectively. Justin Jefferson grabs the highlights, but the Vikings have so many different things they could do with their offense.
It might end up coming down to which team could get a late stop, and I’m thinking the Vikes are better equipped in that type of game at this point in the season.