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It varies every spring.
Sometimes gobblers seem resoundingly vocal in the weeks leading up to the start of the season. Other years, the woods are strangely silent.
Is it just hunters’ imaginations or do gobblers sound off more in some years and become quiet in others?
Pennsylvania Game Commission biologist Mary Jo Casalena said the amount of gobbling in the preseason can vary from year to year, and age structure and population density are the most likely factors.
Spring gobbler season begins on April 30 and many hunters have been logging hours in the woods trying to locate a gobbler, or several, before opening day.
What you hear, or don’t, can be deceiving.
Casalena said locations that have a lot of two-year-old gobblers are the places where one can hear gobbling all day long. The two-year-old birds are the most vocal, she said, and they don’t hesitate to shatter the silence of the woods.
But what if the turkey woods are quiet?
“If there are three-year-old gobblers in the area, they might suppress the two-year-olds,” Casalena said. “If there’s a dominant gobbler, the two-year-olds may just leave the area.”
But the jakes will stick around, waiting silently for an opportunity to move up in the pecking order if something happens to the dominant gobbler.
“There’s definitely a hierarchy involved,” Casalena said.
While an old gobbler doesn’t need to be as vocal because it is usually surrounded by hens. And that’s where population density comes into play.
Even if the woods are silent but there is turkey sign, Casalena said the hunting can be good. It’s likely that an older gobbler rules the area, and if the turkey population is decent there will be plenty of hens by his side.
“A three-year-old gobbler with a harem of hens can be pretty quiet. They don’t need to gobble because the hens are already with them,” Casalena said.
Yet there’s a third factor that influences gobbling activity in the preseason.
Hunters calling to gobblers before the season starts can quiet the birds in a hurry.
Casalena pointed to a study conducted by the University of Georgia in which GPS units were attached to gobblers and worn by hunters. The study found that when hunters entered the area, the gobblers left and didn’t return until the season was over and hunter activity disappeared. Those gobblers nearest to the trails that hunters walked had a higher survival rate because they were aware of the human presence and became quiet.
“That’s why we tell people not to call in the preseason. You’ll educate those gobblers,” Casalena said. “It’s a fact.”
Still, Casalena said scouting is crucial, even if it means just walking and listening for birds.
Weather is also a major factor in how vocal a gobbler will be, both directly and indirectly. After a relatively easy winter in 2015-16, hen turkeys entered the spring in relatively good condition. Because they didn’t have to spend time regaining weight to begin laying eggs, hen turkeys got a jumpstart on the nesting season.
Casalena said the spring nesting season is a week to 10 days early this year, and that means gobblers will be more vocal once the season begins.
“Once the hens have begun incubating on nests, they have departed from the gobblers. That’s when the gobblers become more vocal,” Casalena said. “That’s great news for hunters, because those lonely toms will be gobbling more and coming in easier to calling hunters.”
Last spring, hunters took 41,180 spring turkeys in Pennsylvania, which is similar to 2014’s spring harvest of 41,258. But the spring harvests before 2014 were down considerably. In succession, they were: 36,507 in 2013; 36,920 in 2012; and 35,852 in 2011.
What’s surprising is that Pennsylvania’s last two spring harvests followed two of the hardest winters the state has endured in some time. Sometimes, there isn’t an obvious reason for how harvests unfold. But all things considered, it would appear conditions heading into the 2016 spring seasons should provide turkey hunters ample opportunity.
On average, Casalena said, 71 percent of the spring harvest is adult gobblers; 17 percent is jakes; 4 percent is bearded hens and 7 percent is unknown-aged males. The 2015 spring harvest followed that breakdown, except that 22 percent were jakes and only 1 percent of the harvest were bearded hens.
With the early spring creating the potential for increased gobbling activity, could the 2016 season result in a record harvest?
Casalena doesn’t think that’s likely since Pennsylvania’s turkey population – which has increased the last two years, stands at 234,500, below the peak of 288,000 in 2001.
“An above average harvest is a possibility. I’m happy with a harvest over 40,000 birds,” she said. “But every turkey is an individual and there are a lot of variables. That’s what makes it so exciting. Is it going to be a textbook hunt or do you have to re-write the book?”