By PAMELA C. TURFA [email protected]
Tuesday, October 01, 2002     Page: 1D

At first glance, Northeastern Pennsylvania’s 12-month job loss of 2,100
positions is a confidence-shaker.
   
But, in context, the regional statistic might be indicative of an economy
on the upswing, says Scott Meckley of the state’s Center for Workforce
Information and Analysis, which released August work force numbers Monday.
    The latest data shows that 1,400 manufacturing jobs and 700 service jobs
were lost between August 2001 and August of this year.
   
But that number has declined markedly from previous months, Meckley said.
In March, the center reported a job loss of 3,700 positions from March 2001.
In July, the center reported a job loss of 3,400 positions from July 2001.
   
“We’re getting closer to the point where we’re approaching the year-ago
level of jobs,” he said.
   
Across the state and in almost every region, the number of jobs decreased
from a year ago, Meckley said, attributing the declines to the recession and
the economy.
   
But, he noted the August 2001 numbers used for comparison were recorded
before Sept. 11 and the late-2001 wave of layoffs.
   
“The gap in the over-the-year number of jobs is shrinking. … It is
slowly starting to come back around.”
   
That trend is one of several “reasons to be optimistic” in the August
report, Meckley said:
   
Northeastern Pennsylvania’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate climbed
0.2 point to 5.9 percent for August.
   
The regional rate has remained below 6.0 percent for three consecutive
months. It also has remained within range of the state and national rates of
5.3 and 5.7 percent, respectively.
   
One-tenth or two-tenths of a percentage point change in the unemployment
rate is not as much of a concern as the trends, Meckley said.
   
The Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton area, which has about the same work force
as Northeastern Pennsylvania, lost twice as many jobs during the past 12
months.
   
The Allentown area’s job losses of 4,300 amounted to 1.5 percent of that
region’s work force. The job losses of 2,100 in Northeastern Pennsylvania
amounted to 0.7 percent of its work force.
   
The average manufacturing work week rose by almost a full hour in August
to 41.2 percent.
   
“Usually when the work week lengthens, that’s a sign that hiring will
follow … there are more orders,” Meckley said.
   
As orders increase, the first step employers take is to make employees work
more hours. But, eventually, employers find it is more cost-effective to add
positions than pay overtime.
   
Major job losses “aren’t happening anymore,” he said. “But, businesses
aren’t ready to go in the opposite direction and start hiring.”
   
The main concern about the loss of jobs is that many of the manufacturing
jobs were higher-paying, he said, citing the Corning plant in Lackawanna
County that closed last year as an example.
   
Statewide, “there has been and will continue to be a movement of
manufacturing jobs declining and service jobs increasing.”
   
According to the report, Northeastern Pennsylvania had a work force of
279,700 in August. Manufacturing accounted for 63,200 jobs and service
industries accounted for 216,500 jobs.
   
The average weekly manufacturing earnings were $564.85, up from $546.02 a
year earlier.
   
Pamela C. Turfa, a staff writer, may be reached at 829-7177.