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WILKES-BARRE — The end of the long — very long — 2016 campaign trail is near, and on Tuesday, voters will decide several state and national races.
At the top of the ballot are the main candidates for the 45th president of the United States — Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
It is expected to be sunny and mild — 62 degrees — on Election Day in Luzerne County, so the weather should help raise voter turnout to a much higher level than in recent non-presidential election years.
In 2012, when President Barack Obama was re-elected, turnout in the county was 64.7 percent, down from 2008, when it was 73.5 percent.
Voters have several races other than president to choose from — one of Pennsylvania’s two U.S. senators, all of the state’s 18 members in the U.S. House of Representatives, attorney general, auditor general, treasurer, half of the state senators (odd-numbered districts), and all members of the State House of Representatives.
Pennsylvania voters also will see a referendum question involving a proposed amendment to the state constitution. The amendment, if approved by a majority of voters, will require that justices of the Supreme Court and all other state judges be retired on the last day of the calendar year in which they reach the age of 75.
Experts offer views
Jeff Brauer, political science professor at Keystone College, said voter turnout this year is difficult to predict.
“On one hand, the race has generated an immense amount of public interest and media coverage and has been very polarizing,” Brauer said. “Also, Pennsylvania seems to be more in play than it has been in decades, as it has been getting intense attention by the candidates.”
Brauer said given that attention, it would indicate a higher-than-normal turnout.
“But then again, Trump and Clinton have the highest unfavorables of any candidates in history,” he said. “Many voters don’t like the choices at all and may decide to sit out the election.”
Brauer said that while Clinton’s team has a massive get-out-the-vote effort, Trump’s campaign is severely lacking in ground-game organization.
“So it will be interesting to see what turnout ends up to be,” Brauer said.
Tom Baldino, political science professor at Wilkes University, predicts that statewide, voter turnout will be about 63 percent. He said in Luzerne County, look for a higher number — about 68 percent.
Brauer noted that Trump’s supporters are “quite ardent,” and many are new voters.
“Given that, along with such a polarizing campaign, it seems very likely they will vote straight ticket, which will help down-ticket Republicans,” Brauer said. “The question of their impact will be to what extent they actually go out to vote.”
Baldino said political science research into voting behavior has identified increasing rates of straight-ticket voting since the 1990s. This trend seems to occur because those registering as Democrats or Republicans are increasingly likely to be strong partisan identifiers.
“If voters continue the trend, it is more likely they will vote for Trump and other Republicans down the ballot,” Baldino said. “Similarly, voters supporting Clinton will more likely vote for Democratic candidates down the ballot.”
Baldino said the trend could have a significant effect on races such as the U.S. Senate contest between Republican incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey and Democratic challenger Katie McGinty.
“The coattail effects of the popularity of the respective presidential candidates are strongest the closer to the top of the ticket a race is,” Baldino said. “Since the Senate race is just below the presidential race, the fates of McGinty and Toomey are likely tied to their presidential candidates.”
Brauer said the most enthusiastic Clinton voters — especially those in the highly Democratic urban areas of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh — probably will vote straight ticket.
“The difference will be those Clinton voters who are soft on their support of her,” Brauer said. “Those moderate Democrats, Independents and Republicans who are only voting for Clinton out of the fear of a Trump presidency are likely to split their ballot.
Brauer said those voters could choose Clinton and yet vote Republican for Senate and House races.
“They would prefer a Republican Congress to keep a check on a Clinton presidency that they don’t fully back,” he said. “This already has been playing out in the Pennsylvania polls where Clinton’s leads over Trump have generally been more substantial than McGinty’s ever-so-slight leads over Toomey. It seems some Clinton voters are planning on voting for Toomey.”
Brauer said House races could be affected to some extent by the presidential coattails.
“However, the highly gerrymandered seats isolate incumbents from a lot of the impact,” he said.
Baldino said voter turnout is crucial for the Democrats, especially in the southeast part of the state and in Allegheny County.
“One need only remember (Ed) Rendell’s first gubernatorial election in 2002, where he won with 53 percent of the vote, yet won less than a dozen of the state’s counties,” Baldino said.
