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All eyes should be on Pennsylvania this presidential election cycle.
While Pennsylvania has been dependably “blue” since Bill Clinton won it in 1992, Donald Trump has a real opportunity to be competitive in the state this November. And if the Republican nominee can turn Pennsylvania, it very well could mean that he also can turn states such as Michigan and Ohio. Success with a “Midwestern strategy” would be the difference in winning the White House.
Pennsylvania is the true bellwether of 2016. The state has long been known to be a reliable microcosm of American politics. Even its geography reflects the partisan makeup of the whole country, with strong Democratic pockets on the eastern and western borders, and Republicans dominating the middle, “flyover” parts of the state. There is a significant Democratic registration advantage in Pennsylvania, yet Republicans enjoy a majority in both houses of the state Legislature, much like the nation at large.
Voters in Pennsylvania also reflect the diversity of the United States. Its larger metropolitan areas are populated with college students, young professionals, minorities and LGBT folks who tend to be liberal Democrats, while its suburbs are full of moderate, middle-class families, and its vast rural areas are occupied by conservative Republicans.
And much like the rest of the country, it is Pennsylvania’s blue-collar Democrats and independents who continue to be the key to this election cycle. These substantial and critical voting blocs tend to be fiscally responsible and hold more traditional social values. They have been hit hard with diminishing employment and stagnant wages, especially as mining and manufacturing have declined.
These voters favor protectionist policies and despise the free trade deals of the past several decades that they feel have robbed their way of life. They support a strong military, national security and veterans, yet they are weary of seemingly unfettered immigration and over-involvement in foreign affairs. They are more populist than ideological.
These working-class Democrats and independents have been the traditional swing voters in this traditional swing state. While they have some connection to the Democratic establishment, they easily vote for Republicans who speak to their views and values. In the past, these voters have been willing to invest in both Democratic and Republican promises. Yet, they now feel disappointed, angry and even abandoned by the two parties.
They are looking for something completely different to turn the political establishment, which they believe has failed them, on its head. For many of them, Hillary Clinton is just more of the same old, same old. They particularly see her views on the environment and energy in direct conflict with their livelihoods.
This is where Donald Trump has stepped into the void. These crucial voting blocs see Trump as the one who finally is speaking up for them with no filters and no pretense. Trump has capitalized on their discontent, which is precisely why he finds himself as the Republican nominee. If Trump can hold onto these critical voters through November, he has a decent chance of winning Pennsylvania. And as goes Pennsylvania, so will go much of the Midwest, where vast amounts of similar voters are found.
Trump’s odds in the state are favorable. At the same time, it cannot be overlooked that Clinton still holds solid demographic advantages, especially in the state’s urban centers, and she boasts her father’s hometown ties in Northeastern Pennsylvania. Thus far, Clinton also enjoys marked leads in ground game and fundraising.
Perhaps, though, the X factor of this election will be Trump’s ability not to squander his substantial support with these key voting blocs through blunders and missteps, for which he more and more seems to have a propensity.